New Delhi: After Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from power, there has been a new turn in the relations between India and Bangladesh. The recent visit of interim government’s chief advisor Muhammad Yunus to China and the controversial remarks made there have further deepened the tension between the two countries. In response, India took a big step on Tuesday and closed the trade routes for Bangladesh. This simply means that now Dhaka will not be able to do its trade with third countries using Indian land. This decision is being considered important not only from an economic but also from a diplomatic point of view.

What was Yunus’ comment?

During his visit to China last week, Yunus said in a high-level meeting, “There are seven states in the eastern part of India, called ‘Seven Sisters’. This area is surrounded by mountains and land. They have no way to reach the sea. Bangladesh is the guardian of the sea. This will allow the Chinese economy to expand in this area.” This statement created a stir in India. Experts believe that this comment not only questions India’s sovereignty, but also invites China to interfere in Northeast India. Yunus’s statement came at a time when there is already tension between Bangladesh and India.

India’s strong response

Just a few days after this comment, India withdrew a major trade benefit given to Bangladesh. Under the agreement between the two countries on June 29, 2020, Bangladesh was given the facility to export goods to third countries through Indian ports, airports and land customs stations (LCS). But the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) said in a notification issued on Tuesday, “The notification of June 29, 2020 is repealed. This order will be effective from April 9, 2025.” After this, Bangladeshi containers and trucks will no longer be able to cross the Indian border.

A Foreign Ministry official said, “This facility was increasing the congestion at Indian ports and airports. This was delaying and increasing the cost of our own exports.” This move is a clear indication that India is now re-evaluating its relations with Bangladesh.

What will be the impact on trade?

This decision is bound to affect Bangladesh’s trade with Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. These countries are important markets for Bangladesh, and the Indian route was an economical way for them. On the other hand, Indian exporters have welcomed this move. Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said, “Now there will be no shortage of space for our products. Earlier, we had to suffer losses due to giving priority to Bangladesh.” This change may boost Indian exports, but it may have an adverse effect on Bangladesh’s economy.

Background of diplomatic tension

The relations between the two countries became sour after Sheikh Hasina stepped down from power in August 2024 and took refuge in India. The interim government led by Yunus demanded to bring Hasina back, but India did not respond positively to this. After this, Yunus chose China for his first foreign visit, which was a message to India. Foreign policy analyst Shubham Gupta says, “Yunus’s remarks and closeness with China show Bangladesh’s new strategy. But dragging India’s ‘Seven Sisters’ into it can backfire for Dhaka.”

China’s old dream

China has long been trying to make inroads into India’s northeastern states—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. From the 1962 war to calling Arunachal ‘South Tibet’, its strategy has been clear. Yunus’ statement gives fuel to this intention. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma termed it “objectionable and reprehensible” and said, “This is an attempt to expose India’s strategic weakness.”

Delhi’s message

In diplomatic circles, it is being considered a strong message from India. Gupta says, “This decision is not limited to just trade. It tells Dhaka that India will not compromise on its sovereignty and security.” Foreign Minister S Jaishankar had also said recently, “Cooperation is a holistic approach, it cannot be viewed selectively.” This move after Yunus’s remarks further reinforces that message.

What next?

Bangladesh will now be forced to look for alternative trade routes, but its geographical location makes it difficult. On the other hand, India is working on strengthening its connectivity in the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor and the Northeast. This development could start a new chapter in the relationship between the two countries—or further escalate tensions. For now, Delhi’s move is a stern warning to Dhaka that India is ready to protect its borders and interests.